feat: the hype cycle & amara's law (#38)

* feat: the hype cycle & amara's law

Closes #2.

* chore: update svg to png

For easier rendering in Markdown (rather than needed a raw/sanitized
link).

* chore: better citation for image style

* chore: style image reference

* chore: improve wording
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Dave Kerr
2019-03-04 23:50:04 +08:00
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ Laws, Theories, Principles and Patterns that developers will find useful.
* [Laws](#laws)
* [Brooks's Law](#brookss-law)
* [Conway's Law](#conways-law)
* [The Hype Cycle & Amara's Law](#the-hype-cycle--amaras-law)
* [Hofstadter's Law](#hofstadters-law)
* [Parkinson's Law](#parkinsons-law)
* [The Law of Conservation of Complexity (Tesler's Law)](#the-law-of-conservation-of-complexity-teslers-law)
@@ -59,6 +60,22 @@ This law suggests that the technical boundaries of a system will reflect the str
See also: 'The Spotify Model'.
### The Hype Cycle & Amara's Law
[The Hype Cycle on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle)
> We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
>
> (Roy Amara)
The Hype Cycle is a visual representation of the excitement and development of technology over time, originally produced by Gartner. It is best shown with a visual:
![The Hype Cycle](./images/gartner_hype_cycle.png)
*(Image Reference: By Jeremykemp at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10547051)*
In short, this cycle suggests that there is typically a burst of excitement around new technology and its potential impact. Teams often jump into these technologies quickly, and sometimes fund themselves disappointed with the results. This might be because the technology is not yet mature enough, or real-world applications are not yet fully realised. After a certain amount of time, the capabilities of the technology increase and practical opportunities to use it increase, and teams can finally become productive. Roy Amara's quote sums this up most succinctly - "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate in the long run".
### Hofstadter's Law
[Hofstadter's Law on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law)

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